Public shared reset forecastUnofficial
One moment…
The backend is collecting the latest forecasts and source posts.
Checking the public signalslow confidence
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next 24 hours
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next 48 hours
01
What moved the forecast
Recent public evidence, newest first. Original posts stay one click away.
Waiting for the first source refresh.
02
The source board
Agreement matters. Disagreement is shown, not averaged away.
03
How this estimate is made
01
Collect
The backend reads public tracker APIs, public pages, source-linked reset history, and OpenAI’s public status feed every 15 minutes.
02
Cross-check
We keep each estimate visible. A tracker cannot silently become “truth” just because it has the prettiest number.
03
Summarize
The displayed probability is the median of fresh numerical forecasts. A wide spread lowers confidence automatically.
Right now: 0 numerical forecasts contribute.